Why We Will Be Blindsided In Asia
- 1 September, 2012
- 6 notes
- chinastate capitalismpost-normal declinedroughtclimate change
Minxin Pei says that the prevailing discourse about China — it’s growth prospects, its economy and strength — is wrong.
Everything You Think You Know About China Is Wrong - By Minxin Pei via Foreign Policy
The United States should reassess the basic premises of its China policy and seriously consider an alternative strategy, one based on the assumption of declining Chinese strength and rising probability of an unexpected democratic transition in the coming two decades. Should such a change come, the geopolitical landscape of Asia would transform beyond recognition. The North Korean regime would collapse almost overnight, and the Korean Peninsula would be reunified. A regional wave of democratic transitions would topple the communist regimes in Vietnam and Laos. The biggest and most important unknown, however, is about China itself: Can a weak or weakening country of 1.3 billion manage a peaceful transition to democracy?
And when lined up with other likely elements of 21st century Asia, like declining water resources in exactly those countries, the collapse of ‘communism’ (state capitalism, really) won’t lead to Western-style 20th century democracy. It’s headed for a post-normal decline, and fast.
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