Showing all posts tagged: demographics
The GOP is demographically challenged. This was the last time they could mount a serious run for the presidency, and they lost handily. Romney had a 20% advantage among white Americans, and lost all the swing states.
Kevin Sack and Sarah Wheaton, First, Republicans Must Find Common Ground Among Themselves - NYTimes.com
The longer-term concerns for Republicans were revealed in exit polling. While Mr. Romney won the votes of 59 percent of whites, 52 percent of men and 78 percent of white evangelicals, Mr. Obama claimed 55 percent of women, 60 percent of voters under 30, 93 percent of African-Americans and more than 70 percent of Latinos and Asians.
Although the president’s majority shrank nationally, he won a larger proportion of Latino and Asian votes than in 2008. Among Latinos, Mr. Romney’s share of the vote fell 17 percentage points below the 44 percent won by George W. Bush in 2004.
Perhaps most ominous, the Latino share of the total vote rose to 10 percent from 8 percent in 2004, and the Asian share rose to 3 percent from 2 percent. The electorate is now 28 percent nonwhite, more than double the figure from two decades ago. That growth is certain to continue; in 2011, births to nonwhites outnumbered births to whites for the first time.
To the extent that the GOP is the party of the 1950s — of white electoral dominance — it’s over.
The clamor about the loss is falling into two categories:
- The GOP has to become more inclusive, and reach out to women, latinos, asians, and blacks. Only problem is that the platform doesn’t match up, because those groups don’t agree with intrusive social policies, small government, and rolling over for the rich folks.
- The GOP has to shift its policies to attract these groups. In essence, that translates to moving left, away from extremist craziness, but the most committed republicans are ideologically averse to that.
What’s going to happen?
I’m betting that — in the medium term — the libertarians of the GOP will gain control. This is the quadrant of the American political map that believes in small government and no government intrusion into personal affairs. This will be a GOP that goes along with abortion, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization, while arguing for low taxes and staying out of asian wars. This will be a GOP that could bargain with a liberal democrat in the White House, which Obama isn’t, by the way, but Hilary might be.